From Gaza to Tehran
The Chain Reaction of a Breached Moment

7th of October 2023. Israel, one of the most militarized and surveillance-heavy nations on the planet, equipped with cutting-edge drone reconnaissance, AI-powered border monitoring, live satellite feeds, and electronic intelligence systems that are benchmarked across the world, found itself exposed, wide open. For nearly six hours, over 6000 heavily armed Hamas and other jihadi militants infiltrated its southern towns with chilling precision, murdering civilians with no resistance, and taking over 250 hostages across the Gaza border.

There was no first line, and worse, no second line of defense. The famous Israeli special forces, known globally for surgical operations and rapid response, were nowhere to be seen for hours. By the time they mobilized, the terrorists had already torched communities, taken prisoners, and left a trail of unimaginable horror.

Towns like Kfar Aza, Be’eri, and Nir Oz were ransacked while families hid in panic, hoping someone would come. No police. No army. No elite rescue units. Only silence from a state known for its ever-watchful eyes.

And from that moment onward, the spiral began.

First came the pounding of Gaza in retaliation. Then came the strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Then the full-blown war with Iran, missiles crossing skies daily, cities on both sides preparing for worst-case scenarios, and on 22 June, the American military bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

And now, Iran vows revenge, threatening American military and naval installations in the region, a tit-for-tat that has now escalated into a regional fireball.

Step back for a moment. Lay all the events on the table. Join the dots. View it from a wider strategic prism. And you begin to see loopholes, gaping ones. Not now, perhaps not even in five years. But a decade or two later, as happened with Iraq 1 and Iraq 2, someone will ask the right questions.

Questions about how the most advanced surveillance state in the Middle East, with its satellites, drones, radar towers, and AI-driven threat detection, missed the gathering of over 6000 armed men on its doorstep. How were Israeli drones flying overhead not able to pick it up? How did Shin Bet and Mossad, two of the most feared and respected intelligence agencies in the world, miss such a large mobilization? Where were the agents, the informants, the trackers, the analysts? This was not a covert cell in an apartment. This was a massive, coordinated operation that unfolded in broad daylight.

And then comes the final piece of this jigsaw. Fast-forward to the current day, American airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. A country’s sovereignty breached. A region pushed to the brink. And the world, again, on the edge of a new kind of war.

And in the middle of all this, the deafening silence of other Middle Eastern powers.
Why? Because they benefit. Sunni-majority nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with their own ideological and political axes to grind, have long sought Shia Iran's containment. Their alliance with the U.S. has always served two purposes: securing economic and military supremacy and maintaining Sunni dominance in a fractured Middle East.

And so, for the rest of us watching this unfold, it doesn’t feel like an organic conflict anymore. It feels choreographed, plotted, even scripted. Like a movie, rather than a messy chain of accidents. And that in itself is alarming.

Which brings us to India.

In the last decade, New Delhi’s foreign policy has gradually climbed a tree that offers no shade. In its bid to cozy up to Washington, India has ended up alienating Russia, a historic and reliable ally. Events like Howdy Modi, flashy optics, and awkward hug diplomacy have done little to cement true trust or influence.

The litmus test came during Operation Sindoor, when India retaliated against cross-border terrorism. One would assume the democratic world would rise in support. Instead, India stood nearly alone, with even close partners offering little more than platitudes. The Americans gave our visiting delegation of members of parliament and ambassadors ten rushed minutes in the Vice President’s office. The President didn’t meet them but days later, the Pakistani army’s Field Marshall was hosted by him for lunch.

That’s diplomacy. That’s realpolitik. And it tells us exactly where we stand.

Maybe it’s time we reset. Return to our traditional allies. Rekindle the Russian relationship that once gave us military and diplomatic cover during our darkest hours. And perhaps explore new alliances where our regional interests align more than our ideological aspirations.

Imagine a triad: India, Iran, and Afghanistan, each with their own grievances against Pakistan, each with potential to corner Islamabad diplomatically and regionally. And in the aftermath of Iran’s betrayal by both Pakistan and Arab states, this moment presents an opening, not just strategic, but historic. The Iranians feel betrayed after field Marshall Munir’s meeting with President Trump, the next day Pakistan nominating Trump for a Nobel Prize for peace and then soon after Trump's B2 bombers exploding Iranian nuclear sites.

For New Delhi, this is the right time to act and to act fast.

Today, India finds itself isolated in South Asia. Our neighbours like Bangladesh, Nepal and even Maldives, the size of locality in Delhi, see us unfavourably. Globally, too, our soft power is flickering. If we remain non-aligned in theory but unwanted in practice, what good is the policy? Maybe it is time, truly, to be aligned with those who matter to us, rather than remain non-aligned in a world where neutrality is the same as invisibility.